A decades-old paper by Austrian-American scientist Heinz von Foerster has recently resurfaced online, reviving a striking prediction: that based on mid-20th-century population trends, humanity could face an “infinite population” scenario around November 13, 2026—a date symbolizing a point of mathematical singularity where growth becomes unsustainable.
The Original Study and Its Context
In a 1960 paper published in Science, von Foerster and colleagues showed that global population growth until then followed a hyperbolic pattern, not just an exponential one. Extrapolating this trend forward, their formula suggested a vertical asymptote—a theoretical point where population would approach infinity—around the year 2026.
It’s crucial to understand that von Foerster was not making a literal prophecy but illustrating a mathematical model based on data available at the time. The paper was a provocative warning: if growth continued unchecked, systems would break down long before the “doomsday” date due to resource depletion, pollution, or conflict.
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Why This Prediction Isn’t Coming True
Demographic trends have significantly shifted since the 1960s:
- Global population growth rates have peaked and are now declining.
- Fertility rates have fallen dramatically in most regions.
- The United Nations projects population will plateau around 10–11 billion by 2100, not reach infinity.
The 2026 “singularity” was based on a trend that did not continue—a reminder that social and economic factors alter projections.
The Lasting Message Behind the Math
While the 2026 date is not a credible forecast, von Foerster’s underlying concern—that unsustainable growth pressures ecosystems, resources, and social stability—remains relevant. Today, experts focus not on infinite growth, but on climate impact, inequality, and biodiversity loss within a growing but stabilizing global population.
In essence, this resurfaced prediction is less a prophecy and more a historical footnote in the long conversation about humanity’s relationship with the planet’s limits—a conversation that continues today in discussions about sustainability and responsible stewardship.
FAQs
Q: Did Heinz von Foerster really predict the world would end in 2026?
A: Not literally. His 1960 paper showed that if the population growth pattern of the time continued unchanged, mathematically it would approach infinity around 2026—a theoretical “singularity.” He used this to warn about unsustainable growth, not to predict a specific doomsday event.
Q: Why is this prediction trending again now?
A: Old doomsday predictions often recirculate online as their “deadline” approaches, mixing curiosity with anxiety about current global crises like climate change and resource scarcity.
Q: Is global population still growing exponentially?
A: No. Growth rates have slowed significantly. Most projections now show the global population peaking later this century and then stabilizing or gradually declining.
Q: What should we take away from this today?
A: The key lesson is the importance of sustainable planning. While the 1960s mathematical model was outdated, the core concern—managing growth within planetary boundaries—remains critical for food security, climate stability, and social equity.
