A government-appointed inquiry committee has held WAPDA, the project’s contractor, and the engineering consultant responsible for the failure of the cofferdam at the 1,530-megawatt Tarbela 5 Extension Hydropower Project, a setback that has caused major delays and pushed the project’s cost to a record level.
According to the inquiry report, the collapse was primarily caused by unauthorized design changes made after the contract had already been awarded. The committee concluded that these modifications weakened the cofferdam, making it unable to withstand expected operating conditions.
The investigation found that the contractor proposed the revised design, the engineering consultant approved it without ensuring full technical compliance, and WAPDA endorsed the changes without adequately reviewing their contractual and engineering implications. As a result, all three parties were found to have failed in fulfilling their responsibilities.
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The report states that the project’s estimated cost has increased from Rs. 82 billion to Rs. 317 billion, representing a 285 percent increase. The delay has also pushed the expected completion date from 2026 to June 2028, extending the project timeline by at least two years.
The Planning Commission estimates that the cost of electricity generated by the project could now rise to Rs. 27 to Rs. 28 per unit, making Tarbela 5 the most expensive renewable energy project in Pakistan. This sharp increase has raised concerns about the project’s long-term financial sustainability and its impact on electricity consumers.
The inquiry committee also rejected claims that unusually high river flows caused the collapse. Instead, it concluded that water levels remained within historical limits and that the failure resulted from poor engineering decisions, inadequate protection layers, weak filter arrangements, and the replacement of the original design with a less stable rock-filled structure.
The Tarbela 5 Extension Project is being financed through $700 million in loans from the World Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Authorities are now expected to review the findings and determine accountability while working to complete the strategically important hydropower project as quickly as possible.
